Ontario Housing Market: July 2023
Plummeting Ontario home prices, in the wake of two Bank of Canada rate hikes in June and July 2023, have caused the average Ontario home price to fall to a new low for the year. For July 2023, Ontario’s average home price was $856,269, down a significant 6% month-over-month, the lowest that it has been since January 2023. On an annual basis, home prices in Ontario are up 3% year-over-year.
The GTA is slightly outperforming other areas of the province, even as climbing mortgage rates continue to spook already weary homebuyers in one of the most expensive markets to buy a home in Canada. For those looking to buy a house in Toronto, you’ll need a minimum income of more than $213,000 to afford an average home, based on the City of Toronto’s average home price of $1,066,184 for July 2023. You’ll also need to cough up at least $213,000 as a down payment.
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market, which accounted for 13% of all home sales in Canada for the month of July 2023, saw prices fall 5% compared to last month, slightly less than the 6% fall in the provincial average price. Similarly, the GTA’s annual price gain stood at 4%, beating out the provincial average’s annual price gain of 3%. The GTA’s average home price for July 2023 was $1,118,374.
Sales activity in many of Ontario’s major housing markets remains stronger than the poor showing seen last July. Provincially, Ontario home sales are up 9% year-over-year. Home sales in Toronto are up by 7% year-over-year and down 30% from last month, while Ottawa’s housing market is seeing a 14% increase in sales year-over-year, down 24% from last month. Hamilton and Mississauga sales activity is also seeing similar patterns: a minor year-over-year increase in sales and a large decrease in sales month-over-month. An exception to this is Brampton, which has seen both an annual and a monthly decline in home sales.
Looking at Ontario’s major urban housing markets in terms of annual price change for July 2023, Mississauga is the worst performing with a 1% year-over-year decrease in average sold prices. It’s the only major housing market in Ontario to see a decrease in prices compared to the same period last year.
London-St. Thomas managed to scrape out a tiny 0.2% year-over-year price increase, to $668,821. Brampton home prices are up 2%, Ottawa home prices are up 6%, Hamilton home prices are up 7%, and Oshawa home prices are up 8.5% year-over-year. Comparatively, City of Toronto home prices are up 5% year-over-year.
Looking at home prices, the average home price in Toronto’s housing market for July 2023 was $1,066,184 for the City of Toronto and $1,118,374 for the GTA.Brampton had an average selling price of $1,052,059. Meanwhile, Mississauga home prices increased to $1,057,640.
The Ottawa and Hamilton housing markets remain cheaper alternatives to the GTA’s expensive home prices. Hamilton’s average sold price for July 2023 was $847,087, while Ottawa’s average sold price was $682,436. Real estate in London, Ontario, remains relatively affordable, although slightly more expensive than Ottawa, with an average price of $668,821. Oshawa’s housing market had an average price of $829,759
Ontario Housing Market Forecast for 2023
Ontario’s housing market saw a sharp correction in prices in 2022 as Bank of Canada rate hikes brought about rising interest rates, stifling demand. Looking forward, Ontario’s housing market forecast for 2023 depends on a few factors.
A pause in Bank of Canada rate hikes, something that is widely predicted as inflation eases off and as the risk of a recession increases, might even translate into rate cuts this year. Immigration, looking mainly at newcomers and international students, has also been returning to normal levels. More people looking for a home will boost demand. Met with a shortage in housing inventory, a surge in buyers will introduce upward pressure on housing prices.
The federal government banned foreign buyers from buying a home in Canada, starting in 2023. Should interest rates continue to increase, demand will be crippled further.
